Sprinkler Age A Publication of the American Fire Sprinkler Association
Optimism Continues for a Third Year
As the sprinkler industry heads into 2025, expectations appear to be positive. Dodge Construction and FMI Corp. both predict another year of growth in construction starts and construction put-in-place. Members of the American Fire Sprinkler Association (AFSA) also report feeling optimistic. Read member reports from around the country below and visit enr.com/ and constructionexec.com/ for additional forecasting.
DODGE CONSTRUCTION REPORTS
Annual reports detailed in Engineering-News Record (Nov. 20, 2024) include Dodge Construction, which predicts overall construction starts are expected to rise 8.6% in 2025, following an 8% increase last year. For residential construction starts, Dodge expects the total dollar value of residential starts for 2024 to end up 7.8%, with another 11.5% increase in 2025. Multifamily starts are forecasted to end down 5.5% in 2024 but rebound with 15.7% growth this year.
Dodge forecasts non-residential starts up 5.7% for 2024 and expects a 5.9% rise this year. Warehouse starts should end down 8% in 2024, with a slight decrease of -0.5% in 2025. Hotel starts were up 31.5% last year and will increase another 16.2% this year. Office building starts are expected to rise by 17.1% in 2024 and increase by 5.3% in 2025. Stores and shopping centers are expected to continue the 4.6% increase in 2024, with a 16.6% rise in 2025. Healthcare facilities should grow 10.8% in 2025 after being up 19% last year.
FMI CORP. FORECAST
FMI Corp. is forecasting total construction put-in-place for 2024 to increase overall by 5.4%, with a slight increase of 2.0% in 2025. Total residential construction put-in-place will rise 4.6% in 2024 and climb another 1.3% in 2025. The forecast for single-family construction put-in-place is up 5.2% for 2024 and should gain 4.5% in 2025. Multifamily put-in-place is expected to fall 4% in 2024, with another 15.9% drop in 2025. Total non-residential construction put-in-place is expected to climb 5.8% in 2024 and rise another 1.5% this year.
Commercial work is expected to fall 8.5% in 2024 and fall another 8.0% in 2025. Health care is one area that FMI estimates will move in a positive direction this year. For 2024, construction put-in-place for this sector is forecasted to increase 1.3% for 2024 and 2.6% in 2025 due to the rise in office buildings and hospitals.
NAHB REPORT
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) estimates total housing starts fell 5.4% in 2024 and will drop another slight 0.5% in 2025. Single-family work is expected to have risen 5.4% last year and rise 1.4% this year. Multifamily will show a sharp decline in 2024 of 27.5% and another 5.8% decrease this year.
REGIONAL REPORTS
“The Pacific Northwest sprinkler business was above average in 2024,” comments AFSA Region 1 Director Brooks Bayne, vice president of operations at AFP Systems in Tualatin, Ore. “The warehouse and DC new build was double the past few years, and the condo/apartment residential work has been off the charts, with a waiting list to move in as the buildings are completed in Oregon and Washington state.”
Bayne foresees the growth continuing in 2025. “We are currently sitting roughly 75% on the books compared to this time in 2024. Although the word in our general contractor meeting groups is that 2025 will be half the total projects we all performed in 2024, we are staying positive and slowly filling up our workload.”
“The southern states experienced a robust economy in 2024, with investments in new and updated sawmills from Canadian investors,” notes AFSA Chair of the Board Linda Biernacki, president of Fire Tech Systems, in Shreveport, La. “Manufacturing is coming back, and apartment buildings in the last quarter of 2024 were slow, which I contributed to the election. I’m very optimistic about 2025. We will have a much friendlier business climate for merit shop contractors.”
Chris Johnson, president and co-founder of Piper Fire Protection, a Fortis Brand in Clearwater, Fla., and AFSA’s Region 7 Director, had a “record-setting year at Piper and our Fortis organization” in 2024. “Specifically at our West Florida operations, we were on pace to grow above 20% from 2023.” He notes, “Our areas have been devastated by hurricanes in September and October, which caused us a loss of almost three weeks of production. Many of our customers are still not back in operation, and many of them will not reopen.”
He continues, “Storm repairs and bringing damaged buildings up to current fire code will help our region have a lot of opportunities. There are multiple $1B-plus projects going on in the greater Tampa Bay area, which should keep our entire region hopping throughout 2025.”
Roy Orsborne, president of Fire Tech Services, Inc., Chesapeake, Va., reports that “Business was good and consistent in 2024, and 2025 looks as good and possibly better.”
Fernandez McKenley, president of F2M Fire & Drafting Designs, Inc., Mt. Vernon, N.Y., says that in 2024, “Business was good. We experienced the same amount of work from the previous year,” and that “Business for 2025 looks good as we are planning on offering new services, which we estimated to boost our revenue by 100%.”
AFSA Region 10 Director Paul DeLorie, senior vice president of Hampshire Fire Protection, Co., Inc., Londonderry, N.H., had a “fantastic year” in 2024. “Our volume increased substantially from 2023, and we had a good margin. Our service group had the greatest positive impact, and our construction group performed well even with the challenges of poorly run projects by the prime contractor.”
For 2025, DeLorie expects more growth. “We are emphasizing work in a territory where we had limited business that needs more ITM and construction work as the fire protection contractors in that area are not keeping up or are not participating as much. Mergers and acquisitions have changed the market considerably, and we have more opportunities. I hope 2025 exceeds my expectations.”
Potential Challenges—“Pacific Northwest manpower is always our weak spot,” comments Bayne. “We are currently enrolled in many career fairs and always targeting the new generation of trade personnel coming out of high school. Our ABC/AFSA new apprentice program is up to standards and rapidly growing.”
McKenley agrees about manpower. “We foresee workforce problems since finding a good sprinkler designer is rare and because our services will be increasing.”
“We have the same problem year after year,” comments DeLorie, “not enough talent. It’s Ground Hog Day!”
“I am concerned with some of our incoming administration’s appointments, specifically in the Department of Labor,” says Johnson. “Florida has been a fantastic state for merit shop contractors to be successful. We are committed to training and always have 40-plus apprentices preparing to be our future job site and operational leaders.”
NFPA 13D Installations—Bayne notes that “NFPA 13D projects are 35-40% of our workload and have remained steady the past 24 months. We are expecting to see more and more NFPA 13D with the demand for residential housing in our area. Condo/apartments and single-family dwelling projects are in very high demand.”
He continues, “Residential NFPA 13D local codes have increased in a positive way for the sprinkler industry. We see Washington State a bit out in front of Oregon, although Oregon is also adapting new codes pushing more single-family and NFPA 13D projects requiring full sprinklers.”
“Piper does do NFPA 13D systems in some custom larger single-family homes,” states Johnson. “We expect that to spike as many waterfront homes will be demolished and built up above the flood plain to accommodate FEMA rules. Florida has a requirement for homes three stories or more in height to be protected by sprinklers.”
“We perform NFPA 13D work, but we didn’t see any increase in 2024,” states McKenley.
Retrofit Work—“Retrofit is an ongoing scope of work in our area,” reports Bayne. “We noticed a slight uptick in retrofit in 2024 and expect the same in 2025 with our rapidly growing residential industry.”
“Retrofit has been slow over the past couple of years,” notes Johnson. “I expect that the Florida legislature will continue to push back requirements for high-rise condominiums to be retrofit, although the last three governors have vetoed attempts to remove the requirement altogether. The hurricanes will create a situation where many buildings will need to be brought up to the current code. There should be plenty of work in this area in 2025 and beyond.”
“Retrofit work has been steady in our area. We specialize in inspections, repair, and maintenance,” states Orsborne.
McKenley says that they performed retrofit work in 2024, and they saw an increase.
Inspection, Testing, and Maintenance (ITM)—“ITM in the Pacific Northwest is increasing with all the new construction. I believe the ITM-driven companies are increasing workload quarter per quarter and on an annual basis.”
“There has been continuous consolidation in our market and every market in the country. Some of these are painful for the customer. We expect to have continued growth throughout 2025 in our service and inspection business,” reports Johnson.
“We expect more ITM work as we expand into new territory,” says DeLorie. “Our integrated fire alarm group is value-added, and that increases our ITM contracts. Our goal is to have ITM and service work revenue exceed our construction work.”
Residential Sprinkler Activity—“Residential workload has been increasing the last five years in the Pacific Northwest,” says Bayne. “We estimate 2025 to also increase the same if not more than 2024.”
McKenley also reports that residential projects increased in their area last year.
“We get our share of three- and four-story wood-frame apartment complexes,” states DeLorie. “Some of them have many buildings with many apartment units per building. Buildings with below-level parking and ground-floor commercial areas with wood-frame apartments over the commercial area (wood over concrete podium) are being built in many downtowns and villages. That will continue in 2025.”
Legislation—“Our industry has been extremely successful at our State Capitol,” comments Johnson. “We passed an expedited permit law for small repairs and renovations that is starting to help with turnaround times to receive a permit on these jobs. We also passed a bill to allow contractors to sign off without P.E. Seals on head relocation jobs up to 250 sprinklers, which is helping contractors save money and time.”
“There have been a few large residential projects that had a PLA requirement,” notes DeLorie. “They have been contested, or the extended cost of the PLA makes the project unaffordable. Hopefully, the PLA will go away.”
THRIVE IN 2025
Members appear to be excited for the coming year. “God is good, and after 22 years, we’re still going strong,” comments Orsborne.
“We are very excited for 2025,” summarizes Johnson. “I expect to see significant growth in revenue this year over last. After a pretty tough hurricane season, it feels like we are starting to come through the storms into a pretty exciting year.”
AFSA is here to help its members achieve the goals they’ve set. See page 20 of this issue for details on training and visit firesprinkler.org/ to register. Questions? Email training@firesprinkler.org or call (214) 349-5965. AFSA can help members thrive in 2025!
